David Schraub speculates that the President decided to release his long-form birth certificate now to raise Donald Trump’s (often embarrassing) profile.
It seems more likely to me that Obama had hoped the issue would go away or at least remain on the fringe, but that Trump (and the media, by covering him extensively) had revived it and was socially normalizing what had previously been more of a fringe conspiracy theory. One year ago, 20 percent of Americans thought Obama was born in a foreign country. Now that number is up to 25 percent (and presumably growing). And only 51 percent think that birthers are “nutty conspiracy theorists,” while 40 percent now think there is “cause to wonder.”
Obama likely had originally calculated that releasing the long-form would simply bring the issue back into the press, which would do more harm than good. But now that the issue seems to be growing rather than subsiding, thanks to Trump and the media, he felt the calculus had changed. People who previously doubted the birthers might have begun to believe that it was more than merely a crazy conspiracy theory (due to the normalization of the theory), and releasing the document weakens the birthers’ primary argument (which had been “if he was born here why doesn’t he release the long-form birth certificate”). Obama’s trying to arrest an oddly ascendent theory and put it back on the fringe.
I find both Shraub’s theory and yours pretty convincing. As you say, this will probably wreck the legitimacy of the so-called birthers among neutral or moderate voters. Though the birthers themselves surely won’t find the certificate convincing, they’ll have to change their arguments from “it is suspicious that he hasn’t released his birth certificate” to “the birth certificate counts for nothing because it would be trivial for the president to have a forgery certificate made.” The latter assertion contradicts a core premise of the earlier one (the premise that releasing the birth certificate would quell or reduce suspicions).
But, as Shraub suggests, the release will probably raise Trump’s profile by focusing public attention on a major cause of his and on his (apparently) key role in it, and by setting him up as someone who can stand up to Obama on behalf of the far right and force him to respond. And surely this would benefit the Democrats by reducing the profile of more moderate Republicans who could perform better with moderates in 2012.
I really don’t know if I agree that the release will raise Trump’s profile. If it puts the issue to bed – and for any somewhat reasonable observer it surely should – that removes the only card he had in his deck. I agree with Shraub that a Trump candidacy would be a gift for Obama, but I don’t think this raises his profile. I think it pops the hot air balloon of crazy that was elevating his candidacy in the first place. Trump premised his candidacy on the numbers continuing to move in the direction Dustin describes, and after the release of the birth certificate, I don’t see how more people will join the birther fold.
I agree with you Dustin. I think after this we’ll see that 51% number of people who think birthers are “nutty” go up, but as Mark correctly points out, the birthers won’t go anywhere. So what Obama has shrewdly done is ensure the further alienation of a group that Republicans will have to continue to kowtow to.
And I always found this to be just about perfect:
http://vodpod.com/watch/1943938-daily-show-goes-after-birthers
- Dave
Attorney, Dentist, Real Estate Agent
Dustin, I wonder if releasing the birth certificate won’t simply serve to legitimize the “controversy” over Obama’s eligibility, at least in the eyes of voters. Someone who doesn’t follow politics closely might rationally conclude that if birtherism was just a fringe conspiracy theory the President wouldn’t bother responding to it, especially since as Mark points out people like Trump and Orly Taitz aren’t going away any time soon.
Luke, I think that’s exactly why Obama didn’t release the long-form birth certificate as soon as it became apparent that the short-form wouldn’t satisfy them. But I think he was surprised at how resilient the issue proved to be and how much traction it’s gotten lately, such that now the risk of legitimizing the debate seems smaller than the risk of letting the issue continue to fester.
I guess that’s right. It seems like Obama’s goal must have been to shame the mainstream press into stopping their coverage of the story. And as Schraub pointed out, if releasing the long-form certificate makes Trump look even more ridiculous, or even elevates his profile, then Obama benefits.
I’m not necessarily sure it’s a bad thing (from Obama’s perspective) for birtherism to get press coverage, or even increase in salience. It all depends on how it’s presented and who it is gaining ground with. If it is making inroads amongst independents and beginning to be seen by the media as a he-said/she-said “controversy”, that’s obviously bad. But if it’s only gaining ground amongst Republicans and is the linchpin of “the GOP is being taken over by a wave of crazy”, that’s good. You want the middle of the country to associate your opponents with fringe positions.
Since I didn’t really see proof that birtherism was making true inroads amongst centrists and swing voters, I found it a little odd that Obama decided to put the brakes on the train. Then again, I doubt this will actually crush the birthers anyway, so maybe it’s just stirring the pot — buttressing the strength of the “they’re crazy” claim while banking on the inability of the far-right to extract itself from ever-more implausible conspiracies.